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, by Julian Sebastian
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Product details
File Size: 7544 KB
Print Length: 108 pages
Simultaneous Device Usage: Unlimited
Publisher: Julian Sebastian, Juris Doctorate (December 19, 2015)
Publication Date: December 19, 2015
Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC
Language: English
ASIN: B019L2YCHO
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Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#131,913 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
I like to look for option strategy ideas, so this highly ranked, inexpensive book should be perfect right? Unfortunately one of the downsides is that the book really doesn't say anything about Option Strategies. The words "Call Option" appear in just one table, when he lists the trades produced by his method for one year.It mostly talks about market cyclicality, esp about the work of WD Gann. There is some brief technical analysis & candlestick charts but too much vague arm waving to really get anything concrete from it. Much of the cycle talk is too crazy for me. Cycles of the moon and "heliocentric movements of Saturn" don't impress me even when he has some scientific papers to back it up.So he does list the rules for his method that he trades. I don't know if its any good or not, I wouldn't trust it from reading this book. He does advertise his seminars, but fair play this isn't just a sales brochure.Finally the book is listed as 105 pages, but half of that is appendices which are a copy of WD Gann's writings, including his predictions for 1929 which you can thankfully skip.I hate leaving 1 star reviews, but I have to for this book. The 5 star reviews have to be fake. At least I learned Kindle does refunds!
As an Engineer and long-time student of cycles in the market, I have come to appreciate simple and practical methods of identifying when there's a statistical edge for ascertaining time and price movement in the markets. J R Stevenson's book on trading ABC patterns and predicting the time and price of Swing D actually works quite well-- in the correct market conditions. In strongly trending markets (define your time frame) it is necessary to look at smaller time frame charts in order to find valid swing points from which to project time and price targets. If there aren't any, then this method doesn't have an edge and you should be using a different tool. Secondly, no method is 100% accurate (just as Casinos don't win every bet placed). But if you can define the environment where your trading system has a statistical edge (more accurately, a Positive Expectancy), a down-draw that your account can accommodate, and rules that you will actually follow(!) then you can take money out of the markets.Stock Options Trading Strategies (and the videos that accompany the book) describe how to add rigor to J R Stevenson's method of identifying trend segments and projecting time-price targets. The Author describes how to filter out trades to enhance the edge of this method based upon the quality of the trend segments and individual candlestick behavior. True, there isn't much hand-holding when describing his option trades. However, the reward-to-risk values he describes show that he is looking to buy out-of-the-money options with strike prices that will be in-the-money if price moves to at least 75% of the projected target. Hence, if you win 3x what you risk, the system breaks even (excluding commission fees) with 1 winning trade in 4. Finally, the Author recommends using Option Chains and calculating the reward:risk ratio. He does walk through a reward:risk option calculation and concludes that the reward isn't large enough to justify the trade (so pass on the trade).Practical test: Over the weekend I tested a sample of 30 charts that showed clearly defined ABC wave patterns. The current Soybean chart showed a clear ABC pattern with one "head-fake." Using the pivot high before the head-fake (an observation made from studying the other charts), I projected a time-price vector and defined a trade entry based upon the Author's rules. The trade worked perfectly (chart attached).A carpenter has multiple tools for specific conditions. Mr. Sebastian provides a tool that has a specific use in a particular market. There's still homework to be done before blindly applying the method to every chart. For the cost of this book, I'm delighted to own this "hammer."
Good parts: briefly, I can say, that it's a good book for its price. It reveals a concrete options strategy, based on authors experience, market cycles theory and work of W.D.Gann (and I like concrete strategies in opposite to prolixity). The strategy is pretty simple, so it is a good fit for DIY.Bad parts: simply, I don't think this strategy will work out as excitingly as it is described in the book. Authors take a period of 2015 for SPY and claim that his strategy won 7 times of total 9 entrances, and the gain was huge several times, comparing to limited losses. I checked out it a little bit further for SPY (starting in 2013). And I got 23/16 win/loss ratio, which is not so impressive, right? Also, I think that 100% and more gain is not so frequent for this strategy. Therefore, I think one should barely have a break even following this strategy blindly. What I also found is that it works much better for call options than for put options. Of course, this is just my findings and my sample can be not representative at all. Also, what I didn't like is that the last part of the book is just a print of W.D. Gann work whcih can be interesting to look at the museum, but not in the options trading book, I guess.
This book attempts to predict future market price and time targets, using a technique that has been previously explored with some success by Stevenson,for use with trading e-minis, and once again suggests the notion of stock market cycles, although a much better understanding can be gained through the work of J M Hurst. His approach to drawing the appropriate vector is the easiest I have seen, and the rules of engagement for entering and exiting the market are clear. Retrospective analysis looks pretty good, but I wouldn't put real money on the table without doing some forward testing with practice accounts, I think using index funds is key.
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